Wednesday, October 7, 2015

NE Oklahoma, Grand Lake and U.S> Housing data for October, 2015


U.S. and NE Oklahoma Economic and housing data and forecast for the rest of 2015.

Data from NAR’s Chief economist, Lawrence Yun

and the NE Oklahoma board of Realtors and MLS
 
 
 
 
 
 

GDP for the rest of 2015 will pick up in the 2nd ½ of the year but only 2.1 percent, good but not great.

Lower Gas prices will increase consumer spending about 3%

Nationally and locally, construction spending increased 6% in the 1st ½ of 2015 and should increase at an even faster pace the last 6 months of 2015.

2.5 million NET jobs should be created in the U.S. during 2015.

There is a national housing shortage.  Prior to 5 years ago there were around 1.5 million new units being built each year.  Since then only around 750,000 homes have been built each year.  We may not see 1.5 million units again until 2017.

Most foreclosures (the Shadow Inventory) have been sold.  Foreclosures now make up less than 10% of national sales and continue to fall.

Historically low interest rates (3% range) have made owning a home very affordable.  This may change soon and quickly.  Demand is forcing home prices up (not so much in the Grand Lake area) and interest rate increases will make payments increase substantially. Example: $200,000 loan at 3.5% for 30 years is $898 P&I.  At 6% this payment would be $1199.

Nationally Home prices are increasing faster the wage earners incomes.

*What does this all mean?  Existing and new home sales will continue to rise.  Thee will be 5.5 million home sales in 2015, a 7% increase from 2014.  Home sales are still 25% below sales prior to the 2004-2006 periods.

What’s happening in the Grand Lake, Oklahoma area.

Home sales YTD from 2014 to 2015 are down 1%

Pending sales (homes under contract) are down 1.3% from 2014

Total listings available to sell are down 3% from the same period in 2014. (good news for future prices)

The average sales price of homes sold in the 1st 3 quarters of 2015 compared to 2014 are down 6.12%.  $160,949 compared to $171,443 last year.

There is over a year’s inventory of homes in the Grand Lake area assuming no new listings were added to the market.  This is more than double what major metro areas have in the 4-States.

Average days on the market stayed at the 6 month level.  This is four times the average time on the market of a Wichita, KS home.

The average sold to list ratio dropped substantially last month.  August saw the highest level for 2015 at 92.8% of value but September sales dropped to 86% of last listed price. This is also indicative of the end of the summer selling season at the lake.

*All in all the market is stable in the Grand Lake area.  Well priced and updated homes are selling but not any faster than they have for the last two years. Prices have not really increased since the 2007-2008 period.  In fact if the home has not been updated or is not in good repair you might see them selling for a discount compared to the go-go years in the early 2000’s.

Report prepared October, 2015 by Wayne Short, CRB, CRS, MBA with RE/MAX Grand Lake

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Grand Lake real estate activity for the 1st six months of 2015


July, 2015 Mid-year Real Estate Report

For the United States, NE Oklahoma and the Grand Lake area.


 

Nationally, June Home sales were the highest of any month since the RE/MAX National Housing report began in 2008.  In the last 5 month each month’s sales were higher than the proceeding moth and the same month one year ago. The median sales price of homes sold in June was $224,671, 7% above a year ago.  Nationally, supply still lags demand with only a 3.6 month supply of housing.  A 6 month supply is a balanced market.

 

Nationally, April, May and June saw an increase in inventory but June’s inventory was still 11.8% below a year ago.  For example the DFW area reported only a 1.8 month’s supply of homes. Grand Lake’s supply of housing was almost 14 months.

Nationally The average home lost $13,067 of equity value in the last 9 years but over the last 3 years the value of a home went up $45,533 and that equity loss should be wiped out in another two years.  The Tulsa area was not hit nearly as bad.  The last 3 years equity gain was only $21,100 but the 9 year position was a $19,400 value increase over 2006.  The Grand Lake area is still behind values 9 years ago but values are slowly rising.  The only negative to a faster recovery will be the dramatic decrease in oil prices and increase in job losses in the oil industry and how that impacts buyers from the OKC, Tulsa and Wichita, KS area.

Grand Lake real estate sales

2015 sales started slow but are beginning to accelerate. There were 426 residential sales in the 1st 6 months of 2015, a 2.9% increase but Junes increase over June, 2014 was 40.8% or 100 sales compared to 71.

Pending sales at the end of June, 2015 were up 13.4% over June, 2014 and YTD pending sales were up 5%.  During June, 2015 32 homes went under contract priced over $200,000, 34 homes sold between $100,000 and $200,000 and 27 homes were sold under $100,000. 

The number of listings available for sale was down 11.4% at the end of June, 2015 compared to a year ago. The greatest need seems to be homes under $100,000 that are stick built so they can qualify for government loans. (USDA, FHA and VA)

Homes are selling at 91% of last listed price, the highest level in over a year.  If no new listings entered the market it would take about 13.5 months to sell Grand Lake’s entire inventory.  This number is three times the national average for major metro areas.

Thursday, June 11, 2015

June, 2015 Real Estate data for the Grand Lake O'Cherokees, NE Oklahoma


Real estate update for the Grand Lake real estate market

Data from the NE, Oklahoma Real Estate Board

June, 2015

 


May, 2015 sales data showed improvements in all areas compared to May, 2014. It would take 13 months to sell all real estate inventory currently listed compared to almost 16 months a year ago. This is a 17% reduction in time.

The average list price and average sales price for this May were up over a year ago. List prices are up 10% and sales prices up 27.6% over May, 2014.

Median days on the market reduced below a 100 days to 95 days compared to 103 days during May, 2014.

 

Sold listings for May, 2015 and the entire year are behind 2014 #’s by around 6% but pending sales for May 2015 are up over 19% compared to the same month a year ago. Pending sales for the year are up in almost all price ranges except the lowest range comparing the 1st 5 months of 2015 back to 2014.

Increased sales are also reflected in active listings on the market which appropriately are down over 14% to 947 homes in May, 2015 compared to 1109 homes during May, 2014.



Over 2 million new jobs were filled by workers in the 1st 5 months of 2015 in the United States and real estate sales in the metropolitan cities around Grand Lake continue to break records.  This activity will cascade down to Grand lake sales in the next 12-24 months.

Interest rates continue at historically low levels (3% to 4%) and should continue until the Federal Reserve meets in the fall.

 

 
 
 

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Grand Lake, OK rReal Estate market Summary, April, 2015


Real Estate Market Summary

Grand Lake area of NE Oklahoma

April, 2015
 
 

Stormy weather and job losses in the “oil patch” may have contributed to a slower than hoped for 1st four months of Grand Lake area real estate activity.

Historically 2nd home and vacation area markets do not rebound as fast as metro area.  They usually lag at least 1-2 years behind the overall economic recovery.  While Wichita, Tulsa, Kansas City and Oklahoma City are having record spring activity, The Grand Lake area is behind last year’s total sold listings by 10.7%.

The average list price of homes is higher than last year at this time but we are selling less expensive homes.  YTD we are selling homes priced at 17.80% below what was selling last year.  The good news is there is a HIGH demand for entry level, stick built homes.  The problem is they are not available in good condition that would allow GRDA, FHA and VA minimum down loans.  There are a number of double wides available but they require permanent foundations and a minimum of 20% down.  This down payment is out of reach for most 1st time buyers.

YTD active listings are 7.8% less than 2014.  Total new listing added to the market YTD are down 8.9%.  This means there are fewer homes to choose from.  The good news is the absorption rate is around 12 months, down from 16 months a year ago.  Days of the Market (DOM) of sold listings are at the lowest level in 12 months.  Homes are selling faster and at a higher list to sold price.  Homes are selling at 90% of list price compared to 88% last month. 

Interest rates continue to remain low.  The Federal Reserve is worried that the economy is recovering at a very low rate, less than ½ of 1% for the 1st quarter of 2015.  We should continue to see historically low rates thru the summer.
Contact Wayne "SHORTY" Short at 918-218-6011 for more specific real estate and market information for the Grand Lake area.  Visit www.Move2GrandLake.com.
 

 

Friday, April 3, 2015

Grand Lake real estate update for 1st quarter 2015


Grand Lake O’ Cherokees, Oklahoma

Real estate news and update.

April, 2015
 

There is Good news and bad news for the Grand Lake area real estate market this spring.

 

The Good News:  1st Inventory levels are down 13% compared to the same time last year.  Dom or Average Days on Market for sold properties were down almost 10% from March 2014 and down 24% from last month. 

The absorption rate in Months of total residential inventory is down 17.4% from a year ago.  There is now LESS than one year of inventory available to sell compared to 15 months at this time last year.

Interest rates are still holding at historic low levels.  30 year fixed rate loans are in the 3.75% to 4% range and 15 year fixed rate loans are in the 3% to 3.25% range.

Not so good news:  Quality homes for 1st time buyers ($80,000 and below) availability are down 23% from a year ago.  $80,000 to $160,000 homes for sale are down 10% from a year ago. 

Less inventory has resulted in less sales for the area.  Total sales for all price ranges for the 1st three months of 2015 are down 23% compared to the same period in 2014.  Pending sales (homes with a contract but not closed) are doing better than 1st quarter sales.  There are 183 homes waiting to close, just a 12% drop from a year ago

Not only are sales down but the average price of homes sold YTD was down 20% from the same period in 2014. 

What we need:  We need quality inventory that has been updated and priced to the market. 

Regional and National news:  Year over year sales increased 2.2% nationally and 5.5% in price at the end of February, 2015.  34 of the major 53 U.S. Metro markets saw an increase in total sales compared to last year and 48 of the markets saw an increase in average sales price.

Tulsa area homes sold were at the highest level in seven years and 2% higher than last year.  Pending contracts were up over 20% compared to last year while average days on the market held steady at two months.  There was 6 months of available inventory in the Tulsa metro area compared to around 1 year of inventory in the Grand Lake area.

Interested in sales data for specific areas or homes…..Give me a call.

Wayne “SHORTY” Short, Broker

CELL: 918-218-6011, wayne.short@remax.net, Office: 918-786-9888


 

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

2015 Grand Lake, OK Fishing Tournaments


2015 Fishing Tournaments on Grand Lake/50 or more boats
 


 

 

Tournament/Association                Date          Weigh-in site         Boats

FLW, LLC                                            3/14/15     Wolf Creek             300         

Anglers in Action                             3/21/15     Wolf Creek             100

Future Bass Trails LLC                     3/22/15     South Winds            60

Nichols Marine                                 4/12/15     Wolf Creek             600

FLW Rayovac                                    4/15/15     Wolf Creek             UKN

The Bass Federation                        4/22/15     Wolf Creek               50

Anglers in Action                             4/25/15     Martin Landing       100

Future bass Trails LLC                     4/26/15     South Winds           100

Falcon Grand Challenge                  5/2/15       Martin landing      1200

Skeeter XFL                                       5/3/15       Wolf Creek               200

Anglers in Action                             5/9/15       Wolf Creek                100

Masonic Lodges                               5/9/15       Bernice Point              50

Tulsa Hookers Bass Club                5/16/15     Grove City ramp        60

Nichols Marine                                 5/17/15     Wolf Creek               600

Oakley Big Bass Tour                      5/30/15     Wolf Creek               250

Nichols Marine Series                     6/7/15       Wolf Creek               600

Fishin Pals Grand Challenge          6/13/15     Martin Landing        280

Future Bass Trails LLC                     6/13/15     South Winds              60

Anglers in Action                             6/20/15     Martin landing         100

Future Bass Trails LLC                     7/11/15     South Winds               60

Big Bass Bash                                   7/18/15     Wolf Creek                UKN

Future Bass Trails LLC                     7/26/15     South Winds               60

Future Bass Trails LLC                     8/15/15     South Winds               60

Oklahoma Bass Federation            9/12/15     Wolf Creek                 50

Nichols Marine Series                     9/19/15     Wolf Creek               600

FLW-College Tournament              10/17/15   Wolf Creek                 50

Future Bass Trails LLC                     10/24/15   South Wind                60

There will also be 27 other tournaments planned with 12-49 boats this summer at Grand lake.

ANNOUNCEMENT: Bass Master Classic will return to Grand Lake and Tulsa in 2016

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Grand Lake, Ok real estate activity for February, 2015


Real Estate Market Report for NE Oklahoma

(Grand Lake area)

February, 2015

The real estate market is starting to tighten up in the Grove, Ok (Grand Lake area). 

Total listings available for sale have declined 10.4% to 857 units.  New listings in February are down 28.8% for the month and 9.5% for YTD.  The decline in available inventory and options for buyers has also affected sales for the 1st part of the year. February, 2015 sales/closings are down 37.7% from a year ago and down 20% for the 1st two months of 2015 compared to 2014.

 

Pending contracts are doing better in February at 65 units but still down 4.4% compared to 68 homes under contract last year.  The lower amount of listings available to sell has lowered the absorption rate (how long it would take to sell all homes for sale if no others entered the market).  The rate has dropped from 13.79 months a year ago to less than one year of inventory at 11.52 months and a reduction of 16.46%. The median days on Market for February, 2015 sales was 161 days.  That is an increase of time on the market of 8.48% from one year ago.

Average price of listings available for sale is $249,544 and increase of 6.44% from last year.  Cheaper homes are selling in 2015 compared to 2014.  The average sales price in the 1st two months of 2015 is $121,830 compared to $140,652 in 2014 a 13.38% decline in value.

Interest rates continue to hold low.  Fixed rates for 30 year loans are around 3.9 to 4% and loans at 3.25% can be had on 15 year fixed rate mortgages.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Is it time for renters to start buying again?


Is it time for renters to start buying again?
 
Interest rates and gas Prices continue to drop.

Rents are soaring and the supply of good rental homes is limited.  2015 looks like it’s the year for renters to start buying again.

Interest rates for 30 year fixed rate loans are back down below 4% again Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have announced new low-down payment loans, FHA is still offering 3% +/- down loans and  VA & Rural development are still offering $0 down loans.

In most areas of the country you can own a home for much less than you would pay to rent the same property.  The average nationally was 4.9% but in Denver it was 11% and 14% in San Francisco.  Rents in 2015 are expected to continue to rise faster than Home values and payments.

Good News:  Many of the home owners who lost their previous homes to foreclosure will not have to wait the original 4 years to get another mortgage.  Fannie Mae just announced that homeowners with extraordinary reasons for the default will only have to wait two years.

More good news:  Third quarter growth of GDP in the U.S. was 5% powered by Consumer spending.  Low rates and gas prices cut in half have finally got the consumer spending again.

 

All in all 2015 should be a good year for consumers, home owners and businesses.

 

Grand Lake Loner Life Jacket Program



 

Grand Lake Loner Life Jacket program

Grand Lake Power Squadron in association with GRDA and the Sea Tow Foundation has established a Life Jacket loner program at Grand Lake.  The 1st station is located at the Wolf Creek launch area and will be followed in 2015 by two more locations on the lake.

Lake users can borrow a life jacket while they are at the lake and need to return them to the same location when they are done with them that day.  Any small child near the water needs one even if they are not boating.

Did You Know….:

All boats are required by law to have a U.S. Coast Guard approved, ready accessible, properly fitting life jacket for every person on board.

The U.S. Coast Guard recommends that you always wear a life jacket while underway on a boat.  Boats that are 16 feet and over in length (except canoes and kayaks) must also have a throwable flotation device.

Nearly ¾ of fatal boating accident victims drown each year and most of them were not wearing a life jacket.  Do not become a statistic.  Borrow one of our life jackets today.
Information provided by Wayne Short, RE/MAX Grand Lake, 918-218-6011

Friday, January 2, 2015


2014 Real Estate Statistics for the Grand Lake area in NE Oklahoma

(What does 2015 hold for local real estate activity?)
 
 Close to Twin Bridges
 
Pelicans at Grand lake
 

2014 was a better real estate year for the Grand Lake area than 2013 was…..but not by much.

The good news:  884 properties were sold compared to 829 in 2013.  This was a 6.6% increase in number of sales.  The top of the market ($300,000 and above) actually had one LESS sale than the year before.  The biggest increase in sales at the lake was in the $160,000 to $199,999 range with a 35% increase in units sold.

Good news:  There were 6.5% more homes under contract at the end of 2014 compared to 2013.  The absorption rate (time it takes to sell all listings based on sales action) was down to 13.68 months, a decrease of 13%.  Still that means there is more than a year’s inventory of homes for sale if no one else listed one.

Good news:  There were 14.3% less active listings on the market at the end of 2014 compared to 2013.  Going in to 2015 any increase in demand may cause listing prices to finally start rising….and demand should rise with gas prices being cut in half plus the national economy having one of its better years since the financial crises in the mid 2000’s.

Not so good news:  Average days on the market (DOM) were 6 months for all price ranges. This was slightly more than 2013.  The average and median sales price at the lake really did not change from 2013 to 2014….. (No appreciation.)  The Average list price for the year for all properties was only up 1.6%.

Not so good news:  The finale sold to finale list price did increase from 87.5% to 90% but that still means that sellers are taking on average a 10% hit on what they wanted for their homes.  Part of this is actually unrealistic listing prices by Realtors and sellers plus sellers not staging and updating their homes to 2014 trends rather than 2006 styles when they bought them.

What has to happen for 2015 to be a GREAT year: More 2nd home buyers at Grand Lake,  the area/business/government/residents doing a better job promoting the benefits of living around Grand Lake, More fun activities/festivals’/fairs/rallies to bring people and money to the area, get a casino/marina on the lake, keep the Grand Lake water levels higher, tear down or rent out all the vacant buildings in towns like Grove (are we growing or dying) and finally realize we are not going to get large manufacturing in the area and decide we really are a resort, vacation and 2nd home area.
 
Area home

Blog by Wayne "SHORTY" Short
RE/MAX Grand Lake, Oklahoma
918-218-6011
www.Move2GrandLake.com